Sunday, December 28, 2008

Can't Close the Deal

I've been sick this past week. One of the good things about being sick is that my wife lets me play poker when I'm sick. I final tabled three times this week and had several other deep runs in tournaments. But I couldn't close the deal in any of them which stinks. I had a 4th, a 3rd, and a 4th place finish. Also had a 20th, 14th, 19th, and an 18th. Cashing is nice, but all of the money is in the top three spots so it's still pretty disappointing. I wish I had the time to play seriously again, but playing in mega tournies with multiple thousands of people takes a serious time commitment and I just can't.

US Health Care Costs

Good series by Uwe Reinhardt on US health care costs. Very readable. This installment is about practice variation, the most important and least discussed issue in health care.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Thanks Men's Health!

The good folks at Men's Health magazine sent me a list of the "20 Symptoms a Man Should Never Ignore." This list is really helpful and includes important advice about not ignoring such things as:

Sudden Blindness, Sudden Groin Pain, A Mysterious Lump in Your Testicle, and A Wound That Doesn't Heal.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Thank you Ravens

God bless the Baltimore Ravens for ending the Cowboys season.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Pondering

Took two sick beats today which cost me some serious money in tournaments I was playing. No one likes bad beat stories, but this is my blog so tough.

First. I'm in the $109 tourney. 1st place is $12K. Cruising along, about 200 people left out of 639. Got about $12K in chips. Blinds are 200/400. Cut off, who has about 6300, raises to 1200. I've got JJ. He's probably got a marginal hand and is just looking to take the blinds, though his raise here has put about 20% of his chips in already. In any case, I have an actual hand so I repop him to $4400. So....he calls, which leaves him with $1850 and out of position playing a pot which has $10k in it. Board comes 634 and he bets his last $1800. I, of course call, and he has KQ. Of course a Q comes in the tune and I lose the pot. But how much worse could he have played his hand? My answer, it's not possible to play it any worse. This was one of those hands that was going to vault me up or put me in short stack. I went out shortly thereafter.

The second bad beat involved me getting AA cracked against the chip leader. Would have put me top 5 in chips. Such is life. Guy had QQ so can't fault his move, but still.

Last one. This is the one I'm pondering. $50 tourney. It's pretty deep in the tourney, probably about 170 people left or so (out of more than 1000). Blinds are 1500/3000. I have a little over $90K so I'm in good shape. In early position I raise to $7500 with 77. The big blind calls. Flop is Ks2d3d. He leads out into the pot for $8000, less than 1/2 the pot. I raise him to $30K and he calls. Now I'm concerned. Problem is he has $12K left and the pot is pretty large so I'm committed. We get all in on the river and he has KQ and I'm down to about $30K. Pretty sure I misplayed the hand, but need to think on it. Ended up cashing in this one.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

OU Sucks

Hahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaaaaahahaahahaha

Best wishes to both players on a speedy recovery.

Battlestar Galactica

So Newsweek asked some "cultural critics" what work best described life under Bush. One of the works chosen was Battlestar Galactica. The guy who writes about it makes the show seem interesting enough to watch. I've always assumed when I was scrolling through the channels that it might be good for a laugh, but now I might actually have to watch it.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

54 Degrees

It was 54 degrees in Austin this morning....in my house. Ive been described as stubborn before. After an ice storm two years ago the company that provides propane to us jacked the price up and then came out and filled us up. One month cost us $1000. They are the only provider out there so I can't switch. So I stopped turning the heat on and I haven't looked back. But this morning kind of sucked.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Thursday, December 11, 2008

The Big Three

Good article in the NYT on the bailout and the Big Three.

I am not a big fan of the bailout. The "czar" concept is stupid. As the article linked to above points out, the Big Three's problem is mainly that people don't want their cars. And reading lefty bloggers rejoice that the bailout could allow Congress to direct automakers to build only "green" cars should scare the hell out of every sane person.

I will, however, take a moment to defend the Big Three on a few charges. The CEOs have faced some scathing commentary, some of it deserved (going to Congress to ask for billions and having zero ideas on what the plan to remain viable is) and some of it unfairly placed (that the specific CEOs in question ran their companies into the ground). I love cars. I can't fix them or work on them. In fact the only thing I know how to do is drive one and put gas in it. But I'm a gear head in that I read all the reviews and have followed the plight of Detroit for multiple years. The Big Three have taken numerous steps to remain competitive, from negotiating concession with workers, to shedding products and lines, to making vastly improved vehicles.

The last point, in particular, is important. Detroit is making much, much better vehicles today than they were even a decade ago. Their issue reminds me of the struggles the Italians faced in the wine industry. Unlike the French, the Italians decided to export all of their terrible wine. As such, Italian wine long suffered a reputation of being terrible. Ford, GM, and Daimler suffer much the same way. They have changed, they are making better and more relevant products, but it is hard to get people to come back after years of slapping a Cadillac symbol over a Cavalier and marking it up $10K.

I don't support the bailout as structured and I definitely agree that the Big Three have made some really bad decisions. My pnly point here is that it is unfair to say that the CEOs and the workers have continued slinging out terrible products because they haven't.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Mortgage Modifications

There have been many calls that mortgage restructuring or assistance should be included as part of any bailout. This report indicates that homeowners who received such aid actually defaulted at a much higher level. The gentleman from the Comptroller's office expresses surprise. I guess I'm not all that surprised.

Defending the CDS Market

The argument that CDS' do no good and should be done away with was inevitably going to be raised. Thankfully, we have Felix Salmon to explain in a readable manner why the CDS market is actually a good thing.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Lebanon, Syria, and the UN

Really good article in The Atlantic about the investigation into Syria's role in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Mount Union

Mount Union is a DIII football powerhouse. And when I say powerhouse, I mean it. They won again yesterday which puts them in the semi-finals (yes, college football does have playoffs that work for everyone else) for the national championship. So here is what is impressive about Mount Union.

In 23 years, their head coach now has a record of 260-21-3. That's a 92% winning rate over two decades. They have lost one conference game since 1999. They have gone undefeated 5 times since 1999. They have never lost two games in a season since 1999. They have lost 5 games total since 1999.

Mount Union won the national championship in 1993. They won again in 1996. Went ahead and won it in 1997 and 1998. They missed out in 1999 when they lost by 3 in overtime in the semi-finals, then they won the title three times in a row in 2000, 2001, and 2002. They lost in the championship game in 2003. In 2004, they lost in the national semi-finals by 3 points. They won the national title again in both 2005 and 20006. They made the title game again in 2007 and lost. So, since 1996 Mount Union has made the final or semi-finals every single year. They have played in 10 out the last 12 national title games, winning 8 of those. In the tow years they did not make the title game they lost in the semi-finals, both times by 3 points.

This year, Mount Union is the #11 rushing team in the nation, the #20 passing team in the nation, has the #1 total offense, #1 scoring offense, #1 rushing defense, #2 passing defense, #1 total defense (166 ypg), #1 scoring defense (5.6 ppg), an average margin of victory of 41 points, and the closest game they have had this year was a 27 point win.

So if you ever want to chime in on the greatest college football program ever, now you know it is Mount Union. And it isn't even close.

Insurance insurance

One of the plans I represent is UnitedHealth. They get in trouble sometimes, mainly because they got so big so fast. But they have really been one of the innovators in bringing new products to market. They were the first ones to really develop the idea of medical lines of credit and now they have developed this product.

I've always wondered why term health insurance does not exist. I've had people offer explanations, but never one that I thought was particularly good.

OU sucks.

Porsche 911 GT2

In these uncertain financial times, the Porsche 911 GT2 makes for a fine investment. Right honey? 530hp, 0-62 in 3.7 seconds.

Also, OU sucks.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Technology Buying Binge

So I've been on a gadget buying binge lately.

Bought myself a netbook. Pretty pleased so far. It'll be really good for hauling to the Capitol for the late nights. Weighs only 2 lbs and I won't have to injure my thumbs typing out emails on my Palm.

New digital camera. Got the EOS Rebel at Coscto. This is an absolute steal right now as the camera comes with 2 high def lenses are usually $300-500 on their own. Costco is weird in that their online division competes with their stores so go to the physical store location. Not sure who I'm writing this to since nobody actually reads this. My wife is actually a pretty talented photographer so she has been wanting this for a while.

Got a 50 inch plasma. One of the Black Friday deals at Best Buy. Per usual, the install is turning into a debacle. We can't hang it on our wall so I'm going to have to run a pole out of the ceiling. That's going to be expensive, but it will look pretty cool when it's done.

Bout time to upgrade the old phone. I've got a Palm Treo which was cutting edge a short time ago and is now the equivalent of walkign around with a rotary phone. Thinking IPhone, but really I just want a decent phone, email, and web browser. I can live without most of the other nonsense.

OU sucks.

Solar Panels

Living in the People's Republic of Austin does have some benefits. Actually, quite a few. The city's energy efficiency program offers pretty substantial rebates on certain home improvements. I'm seriously considering getting solar panels as the city offers substantial rebates and access to low interest loans.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Lotus Exige

In these uncertain times, cars are the best investment. The Lotus Exige.

Seriously?

$326 for Legos?

Horns

Ugh, this is going to get interesting. OU is a good team, but I'm not sure how it is possible that Oklahoma is going to jump them. Actually, I am...a really bad tiebreaker system used by the Big 12.

Mumbai

Fareed Zakaria

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Speed Traps

God bless Apple.

Citigroup

People smarter than me with reactions to the Citigroup bailout. Short version, they're not fans.

Nominee for Most Idiotic Sentence(s) of the Year

Harold Meyerson

"And yet, at the same time, the industry needs to be restructured, and it is ludicrous to believe that the executives who have helped run these companies into the ground are the executives who can make the necessary changes. The task cannot be given either to them or to a bankruptcy judge. It must be undertaken by the federal government -- by the Obama administration and the next Democratic Congress."

Yes, that is exactly what we need. All that has been missing has been Congress running an auto manufacturer.

Monday, November 24, 2008

NCAA

Always wondered why more recruits don't take this approach.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Earmarks

I've never been one who is all wild-eyed about the reports of earmarks in appropriations bills. One, because they are not new or particularly novel, although they have grown massively. Two, earmarks are a rounding error compared to the entitlement crisis we face. Three, there are very good reasons for earmarks. When Congress doesn't direct the spending, it leaves that discretion to the agencies, the largely unregulated fourth branch of government. Agencies, in turn, direct money to their patrons, the committee chairmen who oversee their oversight committees and who appropriate them money.

Now what is broken is the process by which earmarks are authorized. The omnibus bills that package them all together and then require a single up or down vote feeds into every image of Congress as a group of detestable slimebags. Earmarks need to be subject to votes and they need to be decided on their merits.

Anyway, the Seattle Times put together a list of the atrocities. Here.

The Right Kind of Bailout

Felix Salmon

Friday, November 14, 2008

Newsweek 's Secrets of the 2008 Campaign

A seven part series from Newsweek who had reporters embedded with the campaigns. Long, but good. Hat tip to Duane for pointing me toward the story.

More Auto

Megan McCardle weighs in as well

Bailing out the Auto Industry

I've been wondering why bankruptcy is not a viable option for the automakers. Bankruptcy allows debt to be restructured or eliminated and a company can emerge in a much stronger position to actually be successful. I've not closed my mind to the idea that there may be a reason, but I've not seen anyone offer a convincing reason why a bailout is preferable to bankruptcy. But today we've got a good round of opinions on it.

Justin Fox

Brad DeLong

Jonathan Cohn

Monday, November 10, 2008

Poker

Back when I was playing seriously, apestyles was one of the guys who I tried to watch and learn from. He's an absolutely sick player and having watched him play tournaments has helped, me mend some leaks in my game. Anyway, good story in the Statesman.

Zen

I like this passage that Grge Mankiw posts.

Friday, November 7, 2008

More Josh Childress

Another good story.

Losing Like an Adult

I was wondering when someone was going to write this. Just think back to last election and the reaction of folks on the Left. Wild conspiracy theories, vile insults aimed at their neighbors, gnashing of teeth, all around pathetic behavior. While I'm sure losing sucks for folks on the Right, it's been refreshing to watch them lose like adults.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

I Wish Scott Boras Was My Agent

It's funny to me that general managers vilify Scott Boras because he gets them to massively overpay for subpar talent. Half of the salary cap discussion is because the general managers need a rule in place to stop them from spending like idiots.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Dear God

Anyone who has heard Lee Corso announce a game or, say, talk out loud knows that he is bat shit crazy. Here is a nice image of him firing two shotguns off over his head while wearing a mascot suit.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Hmmm

I watch a disturbing amount of Bravo (Top Chef, Flipping Out, Million Dollar Listing, Housewives, Top Design, Project Runway). Actually, it's my wife and I get sucked into it and once I watch it then I'm invested and it just goes from there. Anyway, this is a pretty interesting story from the NY Times.

Audi RS5

In these uncertain times the only safe place to put money is into cars. If my wife won't let me have the Tesla, ZR1, GTR, or M3, then perhaps I will be able to get the Audi RS5.

No One Likes a Show Off

Especially the guy who knocks him out.

Devin Harris on Other PGs

I always think it's interesting when NBA players give their take on who they think the best players are. This one is limited to point guards, but it's still pretty interesting.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Things I've Never Seen

Sometimes stuff just pops into my head. Today I was thinking that I have never, and I mean never, seen a hot woman getting on a bus.

BMW M3

I've pretty much wanted an M3 ever since someone explained to me what an M3 was. If the wife shoots down the Tesla, the ZR1, and the GTR, this is my backup.

Halloween

Time to break out my Popeye Jones mask. Or Gheorghe Muresan.

Financial Sector vs. Non-Financial

There really has been far too little conversation about this topic.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Flashback

The Park Slope Hat Spat. Such a great read.

Lying Liar Lies

Disgusting. It's a lie. Everyone knows she lied and is a lying liar. Some of the quotes are choice, such as:
"I don't mind, I guess, being sort of a sacrifice to help others as long as I can share my experience in a positive way." Yes, dragging people's names through the mud with a vicious lie is quite a sacrifice and it is definitely an experience to be shared with others.

"God has given me the grace and the courage to stand up. ... I'm a real person. I have feelings. I'm not just an ex-dancer. I'm not just someone who tried to frame someone who is innocent of sexual assault. My only intentions were for justice, and I wanted justice for myself." No he didn't. Yes you are. No they weren't and no you didn't.

"I have no comments about the details of the case," she said, adding later, "There's no point in going into that, because the trial will never happen. So what's the point? I just don't see the point." I think the point is that you're writing a book slandering people after your story has been completely discredited.

Hopefully, she'll be sued and never see a dime.

Sweet

John Daly returns. Keywords: Drunk, Hooters, police.

Yeah, he is.

I'm not sure why people get so upset by allegations that Obama is a socialist. I mean, he is. Not a pure one, but very similar to the social democrats that run throughout Europe. I guess that label carries a different connotation in the US.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Monday, October 27, 2008

Sen. Stevens

Good riddance.

California- Prop 2

From the NY Times magazine a profile of the Human Society's top guy and a discussion of Prop 2. This is a very difficult issue for me. I love my animals and I very much agree with the idea that humans should avoid cruelty to animals when possible. However, when I hear members of the animal roghts crowd talking about first steps to regulating what humans can eat, the open admission in the article that this initiative is crafted around PR rather than policy, and lefty bloggers talking about the next steps such as regulating meat through climate change initiatives, it definitely gives me pause. On the merits of Prop 2 itself, I'd probably be voting yes.

Coverage of Afghanistan (and Pakistan)

Michael Yon is a former member of the Special Forces who is now an embedded reporter/blogger covering the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. IMHO, he consistently provides the best coverage on both the details on the ground and the thousands of little cultural issues that are rarely covered in coverage but are immeasurably important.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Nissan GTR

Nissan GTR. One of my backups if the wife won't let me get the Tesla. 480 horses, 0-60 in 3.5 seconds. Sick.

Health Care Costs

If you want to be more knowledgeable about health care than 99.5% of the US population, read this. Paul Ginsburg is one of the better health care policy experts in the country. This is, in part, because he has an affinity for facts and data.

There are a number of studies and rankings that identify the US as having a sub-par health care system. We spend more than any other country, by a wide margin, and still have millions of uninsured and worse outcomes. Some of the measures are misleading. Life expectancy for one is skewed in the United States due to higher murder rates and traffic accidents. No that those are not problems, but they really don't allow for any conclusions about our health care system. Further, a number of the studies that rank the the US health care system poorly do so because they consider how accessible the system is to everyone. Again, it may be an important issue, but it doesn't necessarily tell you anything about the relative quality or value of the health care system.

That said, the US heath care system has major issues. As the Ginsburg report notes, cost is a major one. Really, it's the major one. We consume massive amounts of care that are unnecessary. We devalue primary care and promote high cost interventions. We reimburse providers based on the volume of care they provide with zero regard to quality or need. We fund drug research for the rest of the world. Most of the "reform" efforts being discussed deal primarily with access. That is an important issue. It pales, however, in comparison to the issue of cost because the cost is not sustainable. Health care now consumes slightly better than 16% of GDP and my guess is that it will hit 20% at some point. If you want to know why wages are stagnant, you don't have to look too much further. Pay increases are granted in the form of health benefits every year and, based on the growth of premiums, wages have been increasing substantially. But nobody wants that kind of pay increase. I'll post more about this later. The takeaway is that any politician or reformist or advocate who isn't talking about cost isn't talking about what matters.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Media Bias

When Republicans complain about the media being biased I usually think "duh." Of course they are. This election cycle has produced a whole new level though. It's actually kind of amusing at times, until you realize that a free press that delivers accurate news and analysis is actually kind of an important thing. Well, at least on of their own has realized it to. Here.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Our Incompetent DA

Well done sir. What a f-ing joke. 6+ years of pursuing a non-crime, losing every step of the way, and finally ending it all with a misdemeanor and a $10,000 fine. Although, to be fair, this was never about getting a conviction. As they say, you can beat the rap but you can't beat the ride.

Non-Idiotic Thought From Alec Baldwin

Rare. By the way, I actually like Alec Baldwin as an actor. He might be smart too, it just never sounds like it when he talks about politics because he's foaming at the mouth.

Let's Play Which Party?

This is pretty much par for the course these days. Gee, I wonder which party he's a member of. The article doesn't say, go figure.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Josh Childress

This is a pretty cool article. I've always been a fan of Childress. He's smart, good ballplayer, and he's opened some doors for other athletes (particularly black ones) who would not have considered Europe prior to his decision. It's also easy to understand why other countries are catching up to us in basketball.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

The War Nerd

I love this guy. I can waste hours reading him.

Friday, October 17, 2008

And another one comes to light

What do you say to people like Arthur Johnson? If you don't have serious doubts about the criminal justice system by now, I don't know what to say. Yes, we get a lot of them right, but taking a utilitarian approach to criminal justice is morally bankrupt. The phenomenon that amazes me is how many of the DAs involved refuse to concede someone's innocence in the face of overwhelming evidence. I just don't understand that. I don't understand how you could know someone was innocent and let it happen. The other phenomenon that amazes me is how little bitterness many of those freed show. I spent a night in jail in college and I'm still planning revenge at some point. How can you do 16 years and not hate everyone?

What a really good law

This is retarded.

Power Breakfast

1 whole wheat english muffin
organic peanut butter
2 slices of canadian bacon
2 slices of apple

Peanut butter goes on english muffin, apple goes on top of peanut butter, canadian bacon goes on top of apple. Voila, 20+ grams of protein and it tastes great.

Tesla Roadster

I've been trying to convince my wife that with the market the way it is the smart investment is cars. And this one in particular.

Bacteria sized robots for surgery

Crazy

Thursday, October 16, 2008

The Lister Blister

Shawn Kemp's top ten dunks ever. #1, often referred to as the Lister Blister, is one of the nastiest dunks ever. It is a pity that he will primarily be remembered as a fat slob and father to 3000000000000 illegitimate kids rather than the most athletic power forward ever.

Blazers

Since the Bucks suck, I decided to adopt another NBA team until they rise to prominence again. And since the Blazers took LaMarcus and Brandon Roy, both of whom I loved in college, and got rid of the criminal element, they seem like a good, fun choice. Plus, check out this roster.

Blazers

They Don't Give a F$#&

Ben Smith gets an email from a Republican consultant. I work in politics so many of the conversations I have with folks are with people who are either ideologues, idiots, or extremely jaded and view the whole thing as a big game. (I should also note there are a lot of really smart people I work with as well). But I always take what they say about the mood of the electorate with a grain of salt. I listen very carefully to what my non-political friends say about politics and it's similar to what the Republican consultant is saying. Total disgust.

The Irrational Electorate

Good read.

Or even just ridiculed

Flight of the Conchords

Oh my goodness

Bill Walker

List o' the Day

Sweet

Sadly, yes.

Christopher Buckley.

"While I regret this development, I am not in mourning, for I no longer have any clear idea what, exactly, the modern conservative movement stands for. Eight years of “conservative” government has brought us a doubled national debt, ruinous expansion of entitlement programs, bridges to nowhere, poster boy Jack Abramoff and an ill-premised, ill-waged war conducted by politicians of breathtaking arrogance. As a sideshow, it brought us a truly obscene attempt at federal intervention in the Terry Schiavo case."

Treasury Plan B (or whatever we're on)

Felix Salmon. Besides having an awesome name, this guy does about as good a job writing about the current financial situation as anyone out there.

ZR1

Awesome.
Unfortunately, balding old guys who hang out with strippers and have cigarette speed boats have ruined the reputation of one of the finest automobiles ever made.

Assume the position

Megan McCardle
Makes the point. The latest meme is that the entire financial crisis was caused by deregulation. Asking any follow up question of those who claim this will result in stuttering and delay as they sprint back to their computer to head to Wikipedia. Certainly regulation of financial markets is important. In fact, free markets and capitalism rely on precise rules. But I think her point is accurate. Many of those screaming for additional regulation really don't give a shit about the health of the financial system.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

My new blog

Like a million people I've decided to start a blog. I'm not sure why. I think it is because I'm slightly anti-social (in a non-dangerous way) and this is a good medium for actually discussing issues I like and care about. Some folks suggested I would be good at it. We'll see.

Blog's namesake is Tamerlane. If you don't know who he is, do yourself a favor and read about him. He's a badass.

About me. I work in public affairs...I'm a lobbyist. I lobby for health insurance companies and I love it. Feel free to sling a few arrows if that offends you. I don't offend easily. I'm married to a beautiful, wonderful woman. I've got no kids (otherwise I would not have a blog). I like to use parentheses a lot (like Ted L. Nancy). I'll post about politics, economics, finance, cars (I consider them art), poker, sports, wine, cooking, food, music, travel (we travel a lot), military history, things I find absurd, gloablization, foreign affairs, MMA, and other random stuff. I swear like a sailor. I'm good at Guitar Hero. I can beat anyone in the world at Tecmo Super Bowl. I know Pi to 100 decimals. I have nine brothers and sisters. I'm a voracious reader.